Dobri nasveti za trend following

Britanski trader po imenu "Steve", ki ureja stran www.thetrendfollower.com, je pri meni zapisan zelo visoko, morda celo na samem vrhu vseh traderjev, s katerimi sem bil tako ali drugače v kontaktu. Razlogi za to?

Je eden izjemno redkih bloggerjev, ki javno objavljajo vse svoje trade in rezultate (brez umikanja podatkov s strani, ko jim ne gre - da, tudi to sem že videl).

Iskrenost. Steve brez vsakršne dlake na jeziku govori govori o praktično vsem, kar se tiče tradanja. Ne skriva ničesar, niti svojih lastnih slabosti.

Stevovi rezultati govorijo sami zase.

Njegova v osnovi preprosta, vendar v detajlih izjemno dosledna trend following metoda, je bila ena ključnih prelomnic v mojem procesu dojemanja, kaj je bistvo tradanja.

Steve posta malo, ampak koristno. Praktično vse, kar napiše, je vredno večkratnega branja, in z njegovega bloga sem dobil več resnično uporabnih informacij, kot z vseh drugih blogov skupaj.

Je dostopen. Svoj sistem je zapisal v e-knjigi, ki jo ponuja za drobiž, hkrati pa je vedno na voljo za kakršnakoli vprašanja po mailih. 

Skratka, vsakomur predlagam, da si sam pogleda Stevovo stran. Razlog, zakaj sem sploh začel pisati ta post, pa je njegov zadnji prispevek na blogu z naslovom "20 truths about trend following":

• If traded properly, you will have lots of small losses, a few small gains, and a few big winners.
• You will have to accept that your opinion or beliefs about what might or might not happen count for nothing.
• Often, a new trend will start seemingly for no obvious reason.
• Trends have a tendency to persist, until they don't.
• You do not need to understand the fundamentals behind a stock, commodity or other instrument - however, you do need to have a method of determining whether price is trending or not.
• You never need try to pick a top or a bottom in a market.
• In strongly trending phases, markets can persistently stay overbought or oversold for several months.
• Every so often, traders pronounce that trend following is dead. Usually, this occurs just before a major trending phase begins.
• Being able to effectively follow price trends means you need to have the ability to follow a simple set of rules about when to enter, and when to exit.
• Because you will suffer lots of small losing trades, you need to have rigorous risk control.
• You need to accept that individual markets can move from from trending to non-trending phases (or vice versa) at any moment.
• Every so often, price will move in a particular direction much further than anyone can believe.
• There are only two theoretical price targets when trend following - infinity when going long, and zero when going short.
• Once in a profitable trade, there is only one price level you need to concentrate on - your trailing stop. Everything else is noise.
• Your stop methodology should be able to identify when a trend has finished.
• Trading with the trend is conceptually very easy to understand, but psychologically very difficult to master.
• Patience and discipline are key components of a successful trend followers' armoury.
• Trend following encapsulates the principle of cutting losses short, and letting winners run.
• Trend following is boring - depending on your chosen timeframe or parameters, you could go through significant periods of time without any entry signals being given.
• Some of the most profitable periods for trend followers are when they do absolutely nothing, other than let existing trades play themselves out.

Kot ponavadi, je po mojem mnenju Steve spet zadel pravo. Teh 20 pravil je nekaj, kar bi si moral vsak trend follower nalepiti zraven monitorja. Mislim, da je prav vsako od njih vredno resnega razmisleka, kajti trend following sistem, ki teh pravil ne upošteva, ima resne luknje, ki se bodo slej ko prej pokazale na rezultatih.